Updated at 4:45 p.m.
ST. LOUIS 鈥 Continuing recent trends, new census data show the city of 50度灰视频 is still losing population, with the overall metropolitan area registering hardly any growth at all.
The new estimates, , also show St. Charles County had the biggest gain in population in the area from 2017 to 2018, while the population of 50度灰视频 County, the region鈥檚 most populous, essentially remained the same.
It鈥檚 a familiar dynamic. The city started bleeding population in the 1950s as suburbs grew; St. Charles County started booming a generation later.
For the city, though, the latest estimates come as a blow, especially given the apparent resurgence of investment, including new housing 鈥 much of it in the central corridor along Highway 40 (Interstate 64).
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According to the new census data, the population of the city was 302,838 as of July 1, 2018, down 5,028 from the prior year. That鈥檚 a 5 percent drop from 2010, when the city had 319,294 people.
Despite the city鈥檚 continued loss of population, 50度灰视频 Mayor Lyda Krewson said 鈥渨hat I see are our streets and our neighborhoods are busier than ever. There are cranes in the sky, there are construction dumpsters on the curb.鈥
Krewson said a main takeaway from the new estimates is that the overall region鈥檚 population is flat. She said that should spur a regional discussion about providing more job opportunities. That鈥檚 key, she said, to 鈥渉aving our young people want to stay.鈥
Without a dramatic turnaround, which is unlikely, the city鈥檚 population in 2020 will fall below the total recorded in 1870, before the 鈥淕reat Divorce鈥 of 1876, when the city split from the county. In 1870, the census recorded 310,864 people in the still-unified, but mostly undeveloped 50度灰视频.
Among other highlights from the census data:
鈥 50度灰视频 County gained 297 people, with a total population estimated at 996,945.
鈥 St. Charles County鈥檚 population was 399,182, up 3,937; Jefferson County鈥檚 was 224,347, up 598.
鈥 The two biggest counties in the Metro East both saw declines: St. Clair County鈥檚 population fell by 1,367, to 261,059; Madison County slid 1,010, to 264,461.
鈥 The 50度灰视频 metropolitan area population 鈥 which includes 14 counties and the city of 50度灰视频 鈥 was 2,805,465, down 385. It remained the 20th largest metro area by population. (Last year, the Census Bureau said the 50度灰视频 area had dropped to 21st place, overtaken by Baltimore. But after the data were later revised 鈥 Baltimore lost more people than 50度灰视频 in the revisions 鈥 the 50度灰视频 metro area was moved back to 20th place.)
Christopher Prener, assistant professor of sociology at 50度灰视频 University, researches urban issues, including population loss. Prener used 2010 census data and 2013-2017 census survey estimates to look at neighborhood population losses in the city.
鈥淲e see population growth in downtown 50度灰视频, in places like Tower Grove East and parts of south city along with the midtown corridor,鈥 Prener said. 鈥淎nd the continuing loss, to varying degrees, in the neighborhoods north of Forest Park and north of downtown.鈥
It鈥檚 hard to say if gains made in suburbia offset the city鈥檚 losses, Prener said, because of margin of error. But if the estimates are taken at face value, the answer is a resounding no.
鈥淲e are not seeing population growth offset the continued declined in African American population in the city,鈥 Prener said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 tough to know exactly what鈥檚 going on, and I think we will have a much better sense come the 2020 Census.鈥
St. Charles County Executive Steve Ehlmann said he was happy to see his county鈥檚 continued population gain. But he shared Krewson鈥檚 concern that the population of the overall metro area hasn鈥檛 increased.
鈥淚鈥檓 saying what I鈥檝e been saying the last few years,鈥 Ehlmann said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e doing well (in St. Charles County), but the rest of the region is not. What we need is more people moving to the 50度灰视频 region from outside.鈥
He added that while his county is doing fine right now, 鈥渨hat are the long-term prospects if the region doesn鈥檛 grow?鈥
Lori Fiegel, a 50度灰视频 County planning official who tracks demographic trends, said the new estimates show relatively little change for the county. 鈥淲e鈥檙e in a very stable place,鈥 she said.
Don Roe, executive director of the 50度灰视频 Planning and Urban Design Agency, pointed out that the numbers released Thursday are just estimates and that the next real count of the nation鈥檚 population 鈥 the once-every-10-years census 鈥 will be next year.
He said the city will form a committee to publicize the importance of participating, with special attention paid to population segments that have lagged in responding in the past.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really, really important to get the definitive facts,鈥 he said.
The nation鈥檚 three biggest metro areas 鈥 New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago 鈥 all saw population declines. Chicago area lost 0.23 percent of its population, more than twice New York鈥檚 0.10 percent.
Nationally, growth continues to be happening in the South and the West, with counties in Texas taking four of the top 10 spots measured by numeric growth.
By metropolitan area, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, had the largest numeric growth with a gain of 131,767 (1.8 percent) in 2018, followed by Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. with an increase of 96,268 (2.0 percent), the Census Bureau said in a news release.
鈥淥ne interesting trend we are seeing this year is that metro areas not among the most populous are ranked in the top 10 for population growth,鈥 Sandra Johnson, a demographer in the Census Bureau鈥檚 Population Division, said in a statement. 鈥淭hough no new metro areas moved into the top 10 largest areas, Phoenix, Seattle, Austin, and Orlando all experienced numeric increases in population since 2010, rivaling growth in areas with much larger populations. This trend is consistent with the overall growth we are seeing in the South and the West.鈥
TABLE: 50度灰视频 metro area population estimates
The latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show a continuation of a long-term trend, with St. Charles County gaining the most population and the city of 50度灰视频 losing the most. Population for the biggest county in the MSA, 50度灰视频 County, remained essentially unchanged in the most recent year.
County | State | 2010 | 2017 estimate | 2018 estimate | Change 2010-2018 | 2010-2018 percent change | 2017-2018 change | 2017-2018 percent change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bond | Ill. | 17,768 | 16,635 | 16,630 | -1,138 | -6.40% | -5 | -0.03% |
Calhoun | Ill. | 5,089 | 4,841 | 4,802 | -287 | -5.64% | -39 | -0.81% |
Clinton | Ill. | 37,762 | 37,607 | 37,639 | -123 | -0.33% | 32 | 0.09% |
Franklin | Mo. | 101,492 | 103,288 | 103,670 | 2,178 | 2.15% | 382 | 0.37% |
Jefferson | Mo. | 218,733 | 223,749 | 224,347 | 5,614 | 2.57% | 598 | 0.27% |
Jersey | Ill. | 22,985 | 21,901 | 21,847 | -1,138 | -4.95% | -54 | -0.25% |
Lincoln | Mo. | 52,566 | 56,134 | 57,686 | 5,120 | 9.74% | 1,552 | 2.76% |
Macoupin | Ill. | 47,765 | 45,515 | 45,313 | -2,452 | -5.13% | -202 | -0.44% |
Madison | Ill. | 269,282 | 265,471 | 264,461 | -4,821 | -1.79% | -1,010 | -0.38% |
Monroe | Ill. | 32,957 | 34,159 | 34,335 | 1,378 | 4.18% | 176 | 0.52% |
St. Charles | Mo. | 360,485 | 395,245 | 399,182 | 38,697 | 10.73% | 3,937 | 1.00% |
St. Clair | Ill. | 270,056 | 262,426 | 261,059 | -8,997 | -3.33% | -1,367 | -0.52% |
50度灰视频 | Mo. | 998,954 | 996,648 | 996,945 | -2,009 | -0.20% | 297 | 0.03% |
50度灰视频 city | Mo. | 319,294 | 307,866 | 302,838 | -16,456 | -5.15% | -5,028 | -1.63% |
Warren | Mo. | 32,513 | 34,365 | 34,711 | 2,198 | 6.76% | 346 | 1.01% |
TOTAL | 2,787,701 | 2,805,850 | 2,805,465 | 17,764 | 0.63% | -385 | -0.01% |