Read the transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. The Blues are about a week into training camp. The third preseason game is tonight in Columbus. Let's get to some questions.
GD: You put any stock into the preseason won/loss records? Does it ever indicate weaknesses that may be brewing for the season?
Matthew DeFranks: Not really. I think you can worry about individual players and their performance or effort, but hard to put much stock in preseason. The only games that can have even a little bit of carryover, to me, towards the regular season are the ones where close to a full NHL lineup is dressed.
I do know that organizations may feel differently, though. When I was covering Dallas, I think there was a preseason when the Stars scored like 10 goals in seven games. To the outside, they projected confidence. But inside, I later heard they were concerned about how they were playing in preseason games.
Easy Ed-fan since 1967: Hey Matt, really enjoying your training camp, etc., reporting. Nice job. Saw that the coach compliment Tomas Mrsic's play in the exhibition game. Saw a prospects game last year, and he really stood out--just outstanding, and that was last year. What's the deal with him? He seems destined for far more than where he was drafted. Some kid. Watching closely: if Dvorsky makes the team, could they start him at wing? If so, what line might he be on? If he makes center, he'll have vet Schenn on his wing and somebody like Neighbors, it appears. That would be a good line. If so, where does Buchy play then? How's he doing at center? Who would be the top 3 centers in that event? You know, it's putting a bunch of pressure on him, but if Dvorsky make it at center, the Blues would have three good BALANCED offensive lines. That ain't hay, as they used to say. Your thoughts, please.
Matthew DeFranks: Easy Ed, there's a lot in there, so let's go piece by piece.
Beginning with Mrsic: He'll go Prince Albert in the WHL this season after he was part of a big trade from Medicine Hat this summer. Seems to have decent skill, Bannister liked his smarts. But I don't profess to know a ton about other parts of his game. He was a fourth-rounder this summer, so it'll be some time until he can reach the NHL anyways.
The Blues have only used Dvorsky at center during camp. That doesn't mean they won't look later at using him on the wing, but just that they haven't done so now. Bannister did mention that he's a natural center and that's where he's comfortable. I get that. You want a kid to be comfortable when he's making the biggest jump into the NHL.
I think that Dvorsky is a longshot to make the Opening Day roster as of now. That could change with some standout games in the preseason, but there's really no reason to rush him, especially when the Blues spent so much of this summer accumulating forward depth.
If he does make the roster, though, I would guess it's as a 3C. I think they want to give Buchnevich as much leash at the start of the season at center and I think they probably rightfully view Faksa as more of a 4C.
Sctdog: I have heard a few media/Blues staff mention how hard it will be to make this roster, and I am left a bit confused. All the forward additions except for Halloway were marginal players on their prior team including Faksa who was bought out and received limited playing time for Dallas in the playoffs. On D you have the bought out Suter, and Joesph, none of whom are expected to star but instead play as bottom 6-7 roles, Broberg obviously is different. It seems to me that there are a lot of bodies, but unless one of the young guys makes it, it鈥檚 a group lacking in skill.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, so this is a good point. But the flipside is this: Bolduc/Dvorsky/Dean have to be better than players like Kapanen, Joseph, Texier, Faksa, etc. If they're not better than them and beating them out, then they don't belong in the NHL anyway. Those guys are hardly ones putting up a massive blockade, but they are guys with experience that can fortify depth.
As far as skill, you're right. It's tough to count the goals on this roster. Those guys bring skillsets that should help the Blues play a little faster, a little heavier, but they're not counting on them to score 20 goals.
Sctdog: There have been teams and players in the past who went on a heater near the end of the season once effectively eliminated from the playoffs, only to revert to their non-playoff status the next year. We have also seen teams go on a run after a new coach, however as they say water eventually finds its level. Looking at possession numbers and in some cases shooting percentages, this team look to be a few spots out of the playoffs again. Is the comp the team that finished strong, or the team that was top of the bottom third most of last season?
Matthew DeFranks: Paging Jakub Vrana.
Paging Kasperi Kapanen.
Until proven otherwise, I will think that this Blues team is the one with the possession numbers in line with San Jose and Chicago. The figures didn't really change all that much under Bannister. They just fixed the power play and got elite, elite goaltending and that led to a 99-point pace under Bannister.
Now, they can overcome some possession deficiencies the same way they did last year with special teams and goaltending, but they're by no means a team with an inside track to a playoff spot. There's a big group of teams in the West that could be on the bubble, whether it's teams getting worse or lottery teams getting better.
Sctdog: Its been reported that the Blues are looking at Buch at the 2C spot, isn鈥檛 this more of a story that they don鈥檛 have a 2C, that Scheen is now a 3C or at best second line wing at this stage of his career than a new revelation that Buch can play in the middle?
Matthew DeFranks: It's both, but there are two changed roles here, right? Buchnevich as a center, and Schenn as a winger. Schenn has gone in and out of being a wing throughout his career, so that's hardly new. But Buchnevich starting a season at center is new, so that's why it gets the ink.
In most ways, I anticipate Schenn will still be used the same ways he was last year. Top six minutes, second power play unit. I also expect the Blues to move him back to center at certain points of the season, whether it's to spark something or because of injuries. I don't think he's done down the middle.
Sctdog: If Neighbors is a 20+ goal scorer it looks like the team has 4 viable top 6 forwards, Scheen and Saad really being 3rd liners. Who in the system look like future top 6 forwards and when?
Matthew DeFranks: I would pencil in Dvorsky and Snuggerud as top-six players for next season, even if their impact isn't at that level immediately. Holloway has that potential (he's produced that way in both college and the AHL), but very clearly has a long way to go to be that sort of player.
Stenberg and Pekarcik have some skill to their games, but they could be more middle-six type of guys. Ones to keep an eye on, but also likely a little behind where guys like Dvorsky and Snuggerud are.
The other easy answer would be Bolduc. The Blues are treating him as a top-six forward right now, and we'll see if he can perform that way when he's in the NHL.
Sctdog: At the same age Thomas was a 3rd line wing for most of the season in 2019, and he seemed to improve through the season. He did not become a center until the following years where he gradually improved. Doesn鈥檛 it make sense to develop Dvorsky the same way, sometime in the AHL then use him for at 14 min a game on the 3rd line, move him to 2C next year and the year after hope he develops into a solid 2c?
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I think the main difference is that Thomas couldn't go to the AHL when he was 19 years old. It was either send him back to prove nothing by tearing up the OHL, or keep him in the NHL in some role, which ended up being as a third-line wing.
Dvorsky can go to the AHL this season, and it's a nice middle ground between limited NHL minutes and getting nothing out of going back to the OHL.
Easy Ed-fan since 1967: Agreed, Matt. But if the Kapanen, Joseph, Texier, Faksa players are zero or plus players and wear the other team down--playing good TEAM defense--then the Blues skill players are fresher and used appropriately. So far, and it's early, how do Bolduc, Dvorsky, and Dean look. In the preseason game I saw, the Dean line looked pretty dangerous.
Matthew DeFranks: Bolduc looked to have some more jump in his game in Dallas, a carryover from a solid prospect showcase a couple weeks ago. Dean's line had the goal against the Stars, but didn't notice him a ton otherwise. Dvorsky is always fun to watch when he has the puck, but the Blues want more from him in other areas.
STCBluesFan: MD Thanks for the chats!! Couple questions...1) Toronto media already at stage 1 panic after only 2 preseason games and asking CB if changes are on the horizon. Is Toronto media really that frazzled? 2) If Schenn can't elevate his game do you see him doing a Alexander Steen and moving down a line (or 2) to better the team?
Matthew DeFranks: I did see that exchange, and panic was absolutely the wrong word to use there, but I think it got misconstrued. Sounded like the question was basically "fans may be panicking, but is preseason about development vs. results for you?" But when you say the phrase "is it time in panic?" then you're just setting yourself up for a bad time. I also wonder if that was an Ottawa reporter since the game was in Ottawa. Chief's scrum lasted 1:37, which may not happen if Maple Leafs reporters were traveling there.
If Schenn doesn't have any sort of rebound, there will be no other choice but to move him down the lineup, especially with who the Blues could have on the way. I don't think that's a question for right now, but it's something that has to be on their minds for the coming years.
Easy Ed-fan since 1967: Hey Matt, the paper said Victory+ is going to carry the Blues' preseason. I signed up, but the closest to it was in the Dallas app? What's the deal? How do we get the Blues V+ on TV? Does it have to do with the phone or some BS? Thanks.
Matthew DeFranks: Of the seven preseason games, Victory+ will have five. One was streamed only on the Blues site/app (that was vs. Utah). One will not be streamed (vs. Chicago in Milwaukee).
So for tonight's game, it's really just about downloading the app, signing in and opening it around game time. It'll show up in there. And it's free.
There are different platforms that Victory+ has an app for: Roku, Fire Stick, Vizio, etc. I was able to download the app and watch on the TV the other night for the Dallas game.
You could also watch it on your computer through a web browser, or on a mobile device through an app there.
Matt L: Count me in favor of letting Dvorsky start in the A. Just a year ago he was struggling to make an impact in the SHL, and that league is widely considered a step down from the AHL. Give the young man some time. Let him improve without the scrutiny of being here. Let鈥檚 say he starts in STL and in five or six games he has no goals, one assist and is a minus 5. People will be here in the next chat asking what we could get for him in a trade. If he has a super impressive camp, you can re-assess but it doesn鈥檛 necessarily sound like that鈥檚 happening.
Matthew DeFranks: Somewhat related, I did ask someone how they viewed the various pro leagues after the NHL. It went like this: AHL, KHL, SHL, Swiss, Liiga, DEL, Allsvenskan, ECHL, VHL.
So the SHL is basically the fourth-best league in the world.
According to this person, and I'm sure a lot of other people would have similar opinions.
I go back to something Doug Armstrong said on the Cam and Strick pod, and that was that he made a mistake keeping Neighbours in the NHL to start his first pro season instead of sending him down to the AHL to start.
He saw it as a confidence killer or a momentum stunter that could have been avoided if the order of events was the other way around. So I think Dvorsky is squarely on the "blow me away and prove to me you belong in the NHL" side of the bubble.
pugger: Any way way early thoughts from what you are seeing in camp?
Matthew DeFranks: Not a ton because they've only played two games. But it seems they'll play around with Broberg with Faulk and Parayko. Bolduc keeps getting chances with top-end talent. Holloway, Faksa and Joseph have a decent amount of time together.
Easy Ed-fan since 1967: Give Bannister a chance to have a camp and early season with these guys. Some players will come up, some go down, everybody'll be into a new system--hopefully. I think their TEAM defense will be much better, taking pressure off what is already a good goalie tandem. Lower GA, higher scoring, better result--PLAYOFFS! I'm telling you.
Matthew DeFranks: It sounds good in theory. But let's see it. At this point last year, we were wondering how many goals Jakub Vrana was going to score. It's worth remembering that Texier, Holloway, Faksa and Joseph's previous teams all controlled expected goal share more with them off the ice. They could be good here, it's entirely possible. But it's not like they were lighting it up at previous stops.
Matt L: Were you surprised that Army said his expectations were for the team to make the playoffs? Not saying I would have expected him to say eh it鈥檚 fine if we don鈥檛 make the playoffs this year, but he could鈥檝e just given a bland, vague non-answer. I don鈥檛 expect the Blues to make the playoffs, but I do expect to see improvement in their possession and their relative shot/chance creation stats. Those numbers have to, have to get better for this team to be anything more than a bubble team that gets trounced in the first round.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, Doug danced around this when he met with local reporters at the beginning of training camp, just using rhetoric like "I have a vision for this team that I'll keep to myself." But I did hear clips of him on Spittin Chiclets about setting the expectation for making the playoffs.
Last year, it was about "remaining competitive" or third place in the Central or top part of the middle third. But this season, they believe there's been improvement on the roster on a team that missed the playoffs by six points. And that would lend itself to making the playoffs.
Matt L: Over/Under Time! Team Pts: 85; Thomas Pts: 90; Binnington Sv %:.907; Broberg TOI/gm: 18:00.
Matthew DeFranks: I think those lines are all low, to be honest. Under 85 points would have been last year's 84-point Sabres, and the Blues are probably better than that. Thomas and Binnington's line are the closest I am to taking the under. Thomas would be a career-high, but last year was 86 point with a down year from Kyrou and a middling power play.
Binnington's career save percentage is .908, so that's about in line for him.
Last year, the lowest TOI of a top-four D on the Blues was 21:58 with Faulk. If the Blues use Broberg in a top-four role as it's been forecast, he'll be past 18 minutes. But that is a massive jump from his 12:42 career TOI.
pugger: I want Easy Ed to run the chat.. Love that Optimism!!!! :)
Matthew DeFranks: Easy Ed's sunshine is welcomed every week.
Asking for a Friend: Optimism for the Blues 2024-25 season is overflowing at this point. However, I am concerned about no clear choice for the 2C position. We saw a great team like Colorado stumble when they lost Kadri. Also, the Blues near historic low in man games lost last year will surely not be repeated. The Blues lost 58 man games to injury, the average is closer to 240 games lost. If one of the linchpins on this team goes down with a significant injury the Blues don't have the talent to cover, say a Thomas injury or Parayko injury. Finally, expectations are so high for Jake Neighbors but there is nothing in his history to indicate that he will be a perennial 30 goal scorer. While the Blues certainly will compete for the playoffs they certainly look like a team that is far from being a bonafide Cup challenger.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, 2C is a clear hole and they're trying to paper over it with Pavel Buchnevich in that spot. Long-term, that's Dalibor Dvorsky's spot, but he's not likely to be the solution there right now.
You bring up a good point about injuries. If they lose a top offensive guy for some time, it'll be tough to recover. But there are so few teams that could overcome a loss along the top line (maybe the list is only Dallas, Florida and the Rangers??). For the Blues, they have more depth to cover if their bottom-six goes through injuries. On the back end, they've got nine bodies that play different roles that can fill in. The other part is that on the back end, there's not a premier guy that would leave a massive, massive hole (except Parayko if he plays like last season) that could not be replaced.
As far as Jake Neighbours goes, I think we all don't expect him to shoot 18 percent again. But if he sticks around the crease and gets a slight boost in minutes, he might be able to make up for a dip in shooting percentage simply by generating more chances for himself.
Chris: It appears Springfield has completely turned over their coaching staff. Is there something to that, like the Blues being unhappy with things there post-Bannister, or Tkaczuk not interested in "demotion" to assistant coach, or more of just letting Konowalchuk choose his own assitants?
Matthew DeFranks: I don't know the inner workings of the Springfield hires, but I did hear things about how unstable (usage, etc.) things were under Tkaczuk in the tail end of the season. As far as assistants, I think it's fair most of the time that the new guy gets to choose their own assistants. I guess Bannister could be an exception that, though, since he kept Berube's staff.
Easy Ed-fan since 1967: That Faksa, Holloway, Joseph line is a strong #3, I think, with D + some scoring ability. I think Texier will be a valuable piece, too, more than the 4th line--do you think? They have a lot of big fast wingers that will grow as the year develops. Your thoughts on who grows the most? Thanks,
Matthew DeFranks: I think those guys will move up and down throughout the season, to be honest. I think the Blues better hope that Holloway has the most growth in that group.
Matt L: I鈥檝e been lucky enough to see hundreds of NHL games in person in my life and probably a couple thousand on TV. I鈥檝e never seen an own goal on a delayed penalty live. What are the odds that it happens as Utah鈥檚 first goal in franchise history? The odds have to be astronomical.
Matthew DeFranks: It's crazy. There were times across the last few summers where I would watch those YouTube compilations of goalie goals, and some of them would be that variety. Obviously, it happened last year with the Penguins against the Coyotes. But I haven't seen it happen in a game I was watching either.
pugger: OR .. Easy Ed can be public relations director for the Cardinals.. They 'need' some optimism, badly!!!
Matthew DeFranks: I'll let our baseball people handle the Cardinals discourse, ha.
Matt L: If you are right and all of those are low, the Blues are a playoff team.
Matthew DeFranks: Maybe so. But they basically would have hit those with four more points from Thomas last year. Does four more points from him equal six more points in the standings?
STCBluesFan: Not trying to be the Negative Nell in the chat, I just don't see what all the hype is about Snugg. Shot looks good, not a rocket, skates well, but not overly fast. Seems to have good vision but not anything special. Seems to be JAG (just another guy). What am I missing?
Matthew DeFranks: It's a fair question. The knock on Snuggerud has been about what he does when he's not shooting the puck. His shot is good, but if that's all you can do, you won't stick around in the NHL. It's what made his dry spell in Minnesota a bit worrisome, that he could just disappear for weeks now that he wasn't playing with Cooley and Knies anymore.
All of the first-round picks won't pan out. And even the ones that do may not pan out in the way we think. Some skepticism is healthy.
He's got some time, though, to develop his full game.
pugger: I've just got a feeling Kyrou is going to have a good season.. He's had the ups (37 goals) the downs (booed by home fans)... Maybe he's more mature, more serious, which can only help his game.. 40 goals and 37 assists? I can see it...
Matthew DeFranks: It's in the realm of possibility. He'll just have to be a lot more consistent, and less streaky across an entire season.
That clears the queue, so we'll call it there. See you next week.
-
-
-
-
-
-
