BOULDER, Colo. 鈥 After packing up much of the home clubhouse Sunday and an off day they'll spend in Colorado, the Cardinals begin the six-game, two-city sprint toward the changes that await them in October.
A second consecutive year without reaching the playoffs is certain and they two series to avoid a second consecutive losing season.
There are questions, concerns, and criticisms aplenty.
Good thing it's Monday and the weekly chat is here to address them.
Greetings from the base of the Flatirons in Boulder, where I'll be typing out answers and responses as fast as possible. I may have to take one pause during the rush of the chat for a brief call, and as always, if news breaks, the chat might, too.
Submit your questions using the window below. The chat will appear there first, and then a real-time transcript will be available below the window for easier reading on your desktop, mobile, tablet, or however you prefer to read the chat.
Questions are deleted if their vulgar or just plain rude, but they are not edited for grammar or spelling. Let's hope the answers are.
And away we go.
Molly: Which members of the Cards' coaching staff will be back next season?
DG: Do not know yet. Around the clubhouse, they do expect changes to the staff, of course. A handful of them have contracts through next season, but that's a guarantee of money they'll be owed, not a guarantee of the position they'll have. Dusty Blake has been heavily involved in shaping the pitching development at levels below the majors, and they've made some strides there that they apparently want to keep going with that group. The Cardinals obviously have a decision to make with their hitting coaches after this season. There are at least two members of the Class AAA Memphis staff getting a lot of praise and attention, and there's the added intrigue of whether the Cardinals turn to one of their major-league coaches to fill an opening with the minor-league side, where the farm director position and perhaps the (still open, not filled) field coordinator position is there.
South City Steve: Bringing back Mo as POBO in 2025 would be like bringing back Wainwright in 2023, a decision guided by motivations that have nothing to do with making this baseball club better. It鈥檚 time to prioritize winning again in 50度灰视频, not nostalgia or legacies or farewell seasons or hometown ties. And it may mean taking a step back, and it will probably mean saying goodbye to a lot of familiar faces, but this team needs better baseball players (not just good guys) and a new plan. The era of pretending to be contending must end.
DG: What would be the front office equivalent of winning a 200th game with a gem against the Milwaukee Brewers, because the Cardinals could sure use a win against the Milwaukee Brewers.
jm: I Sianis constant playing a matter of showcasing him for a possible off season move because Voctor sure isn't getting any time out there?
DG: It is not, no. That is not why the Cardinals are doing that. This is one of the things where the team and the fans are going to disagree, and the team just gets to make the call. The Cardinals feel their best chance to win is with Siani in center (and sometimes Nootbaar), and that squeezed the playing time to almost none for Victor Scott II. He got several days in the majors where his focus was working with Willie McGee before games and Ron "Pop" Warner before games on outfield defense and baserunning, respectively. With those drills and that instruction, the decision was made to put him back in Memphis where he could take that work and continue it in games. The concern was that he would not get the playing time to do so in the majors. Again, fans can rightly argue that it would be better for the team to turn the innings over to Scott in the majors and prep him for a run at the job in 2025, and the team can push back -- as it has with comments and actions -- that it prefers Siani in center for the best chance to win these games.
Paul: Hello Derrick. Thank you for doing the chat. My question is: what separates the offenses around the league that are successful versus others. I notice the most teams have 3-4 batters with averages below 250 or 240. If averages are down across the league, what 3 areas are worth looking at?
DG: Batting average appears to be going the way of the pitcher's win -- a stat that still appears on baseball cards but is less and less involved in how teams evaluate production from a baseball player. It's all about the OPS and OBP and, most importantly, the SLG. Those are the numbers to look at -- and then dive into the expected numbers based on advanced data. If you want to distill the Cardinals' troubles this year it's quite simple: They did not hit for damage. They did not slug. And they did not slug with runners in scoring position. Where they rank in the majors has been well-chronicled at this point. Without slugging, they lacked extended rallies and crooked numbers, and that led to all the close games, etc., etc., etc.
The Cardinals have the 10th lowest slugging percentage in the majors.
The Cardinals have the 15th-highest on-base percentage in the majors, which you can shorthand as the act of not making outs. They avoid outs and reach base at a 31% clip that puts them right at 15th.
Their batting average ranks 13th.
So they are in the top half when it comes to BA and OBP, and yet ...
They are 4% below average when it comes to producing runs, and they have scored the ninth-fewest runs in the majors.
That's a quick way to show how SLG is the better indicator of production and it only gets more acute for the Cardinals when we start pulling apart production with runners in scoring position, production from the outfield, and production from the middle of the order -- all areas where the best lineups in the land get OPS or SLG.
Quick aside, because this prompted a recent conversation I had with one of the players -- if you want to consider batting average and where it is in the game right now, let's look at leadoff hitters.
Who would you rather have at leadoff hitter ... Luis Arraez of San Diego or Kyle Schwarber of Philaelphia?
I'll let that question sit for a bit and revisit it later in the chat.
Simple.10: OG DG - You (and BenFred) picked the Cards to win the Division. What did you get wrong? Is it the same thing the cards got wrong?
DG: What I got wrong, way way way way wrong: The lineup. I thought the Cardinals had the makings of a deep, balanced, and forceful offense. They had a mix of left-handed bats that could make them one of the best lineups in the National League if their right-handed cornerstones hit like they had their career and Brendan Donovan provided the OBP, Nolan Gorman provided the SLG, and Lars Nootbaar had the OPS. Every indication going into the year was the pitching would be fine, solid, deeper than 2023 and that the bullpen had the makings of strong, shutdown group, but the strength of the team would be the lineup.
That did not happen.
At all.
The lineup was an anchor on the Cardinals -- and if we're honest with our evaluation I don't know how many people would have seen that coming in March.
Molly: What will the rotation look like next season?
DG: It's a great question. It's just too early to give you an honest answer. The starters right now the Cardinals have under control for next year are Gray, Gibson (option), Lynn (option), Pallante, Mikolas, Matz, and McGreevy. Not all are coming back. That's for sure. Gibson has said he would like to come back. Gray and Mikolas have no-trade clauses. Pallante has earned a chance to be a starter in 2025, and you could argue he's earned the right to be considered in the rotation and not a part of the competition unless the Cardinals sign/acquire a pitcher who is ahead of all them to front the rotation.
12fan: Do the Cardinals think they can fix Nolan Gorman or has his time run out? He has a big upsdie and this year we saw the downside.
DG: They feel they have an offseason plan ready to go for Gorman and for Walker that will address what the team feels both were lacking at the plate -- continued work on things they had to do on the job this year. The plan involves the MLB staff, analytics, and also the performance department. It will take, as you know, buy-in from the player, too.
Duffy in CT: If Goldschmidt isn't resigned, do you think the team will look outside or go with a Burleson Baker combo?
DG: They'll look at free agents at 1B just because there are plenty of them to consider at various price points. You don't have to squint to see a corner of the multiverse where Anthony Rizzo is a Cardinal. I'm not saying that is what's going to happen. I'm not even reporting that it's an outcome the Cardinals want at this point. I'm merely pointing out that as the Cardinals consider how to approach Paul Goldschmidt -- and Paul Goldschmidt decides where he wants to play (that's a huge factor too!) -- that they'll do their "due diligence" on the other free agents and look at the options. Where musical chairs takes them all from there ... We've seen offseason lead to unexpected outcomes before.
Britt: What percentage would you put on Goldschmidt being back with the team next season as it sits right now?
DG: Coin flip. As we've discussed in print and in the chat, the Cardinals are going to approach Goldschmidt after the season to discuss what a return would look like. He'll have to become a free agent first before any agreement could be finalized if that's what he would prefer, if that's what he wants. But if he goes into the market -- and why wouldn't he? -- then he'll get a chance to see what other offers/interest are there. Houston and Arizona are clubs with 1B openings, after all.
Duffy in CT: Maybe Quinn Matthews can contribute, if his spring training is strong.
DG: Would not be a surprise at all. Quinn Mathews MLB ETA is 2025.
Taylor: DG, will blackouts be lifted in time for the 2025 season? Will I finally be able to purchase the MLB package and watch all of the Cards games?
DG: That is a goal that ownership has, but it's not yet clear they'll be able to pull it off because the bankruptcy hearings continue for their broadcast partner. The ultimate goal is to scrap the outdated, awful blackout practice and get direct-to-consumer distribution through streaming. That is where this will all end. But it's not certain for 2025. There's definitely urgency and hope on the ownership side to have that available to fans at some point in the near, near future. To start 2025? Courts are involved. At some point in 2025? That may be more realistic ...
Johnny Mo: Your comment about there being two coaches at AAA ready for a promotion got me thinking. Do you think the Cardinals have become too insular over the last 20 years which has led to this meandering, average organization? Other teams have clearly outpaced the Cardinals the last decade, all the while the Cardinals have promoted internally and used the "next man up" mentaility when The Cardinal Way (TM) clearly isn't any better (and perhaps worse) than most of the organizations that try to put together winning teams each year. I'm hopeful that the Chaim Bloom hiring (and potential) promotion helps with that, but I guess it won't matter if the DeWitts won't deviate from their comfort zone.
DG: Yes.
That's the short answer to your question. Yes.
It's why I've been asking that question at press conferences for what ... six, seven years now? When Mozeliak got his previous extension, I asked DeWitt if he was concerned that the continuity he valued so much risked because stale. He did not like the question. He did answer it and said that continuity and consistency were the backbone of the team's success. It was a fine answer. But I stand by the question, and it's one of the reasons why the hiring of Skip Schumaker as bench coach was so important to the current era of the team. He had the Cardinals roots. But he'd been elsewhere. He had been with the Dodgers and the Padres and the Reds and could compare and contrast. The slightly longer answer to your question is exactly why I've been asking about this for several years now.
Travis: How quickly do you expect any announcements/decisions about the FO and coaching staff once the season is (mercifully) over? If there isn't any changes at the top would you expect an "end of season" press conference to give insights into direction forward? If I recall they kind of punted on that last year saying they needed time to demonstrate their pitching plans before facing the firing squad.
DG: This is a good question, and as you can imagine it's not one that I have a specific answer for yet because if I did it would already be on the web site as news.
The way things are set up right now is that the Cardinals with have stages of these changes. The order of them? Not sure. But it's not going to be one day all things settled. It's going to be one offseason, all the changes take place.
An end of year presser (at least one) is expected this season, and the Cardinals recognize the importance of doing that -- to give the fans those answers.
That's what I've heard from the team. We'll see if it follows through, of course.
Last year they did not have a traditional end-of-year presser. This was not the first time that happened. It did get more attention because of the record. Some background: MLB does not like teams to take away from the jewel events, like the playoffs, and so teams are asked (strongly) to keep their press conferences to off days in the schedule. There weren't many. There was a conflict for one of the off days, too. So Mozeliak did talk with reporters/outlets individually. He also did a summary presser before the end of the season in hopes that the questions after the season would not revisit '23 but look toward '24. With that in mind, he did tell the Post-Dispatch he'd have that availability and all the time to answer those questions at the GM meetings. And he did, meeting there with two reporters, the PD and MLB-dot-com. That's way too much background, but I wanted to give you the scope of it.
I haven't checked today if the Cardinals have a press conference planned for Monday next week, but did plan ahead -- and purchased a red-eye ticket back from San Francisco just in case.
TomBruno23: Black Crowes at The Factory on October 26. Will I see you there?
DG: TBD. I'm intrigued. But I'm not sure.
Mike: Will the Cardinals play in the Soto sandbox?
DG: Not likely, no.
New York. New York. Washington. Let's see all the pocketbooks line up ...
TomBruno23: If there is a POBO change and if that new POBO wants to bring in his her their own person some old friends are available to come on home鈥LR, Skip, David Bell鈥
DG: It is somewhat humorous and also completely on brand with the dichotomy facing the Cardinals. Fans want change! And fans want that change to be ...
... former Cardinals?
I get a lot of these suggestions, and I completely understand them, but also see the bind the fans and the team are in. The fans seem to value continuity too: "We want to hear from a new voice, as long as it's a voice we've heard from before!"
Joe B: How would you grade the Randy Flores Era? It seems like the decline of the farm system is the biggest reason for the drop down the standings. Is that a drafting issue or a development issue or both?
DG: This is a fair question, and it's one I've had a few conversations about over the past few weeks, really trying to explore the topic. One of the things that I have tried to always make a hallmark of my coverage of the team is not to overlook development when talking about a player. Too often we look at the big ones -- DRAFT and DEBUT and we miss the most important part in between, DEVELOPMENT. Well, what has changed in the past decade is more and more and more of that development is happening at the big-league level, too. So, it's not enough to stop at DEBUT. The look at development must continue.
A few things stand out, to me:
-- Look at the season Mizzou product and 50度灰视频-area native Tanner Houck had this season for Boston. Strong stuff. All-Star. Break through. Lots to like. He was taken with the 24th overall pick in 2017. And you can look at other picks in that draft and how they're now emerging as impact contributors. The Cardinals did not have a pick that high. They lost it as penalty in the hacking scandal. These recent seasons are when they would be getting contributions from a draft the did not get to participate in at the top end. It's a lost draft. And the pinch is real. And that's not on Flores. But it is on the Cardinals' watch and part of this era.
-- The Cardinals are understaffed in the minors. They did not fill some roles after the pandemic. They scrapped some of the programs. They do have a strong Fourth Coach program that is good and it's been valuable for them. But they don't have the infrastructure they need for pitching development or even quality-control standards, and they have been lapped by Milwaukee when it comes to pitcher development and infrastructure, and lapped by many teams when it comes to size of staffs. So the draft funnels players into a system that hasn't modernized.
-- The first round impact player has not been there for the Cardinals. That is the player who gets the most attention, and recent top picks have had their moments, their contributions, but not the sustained success. That could still happen. Young players abound. Gorman and Walker could hit cleanup and fifth for the 2025 Cardinals and have great seasons as part of a revival. That could happen and then this answer looks a lot different.
-- But the draft isn't just the first round. And from other rounds the Cardinals have Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Andre Pallante -- three young players who all had strong seasons this in 2024 and should not be overlooked when we're discussing development and young talents. It is fair to fixate on how some of the standout talents have not had the expected impact for the Cardinals. Impossible to ignore that. But there is room in the conversation for the developed players who are contributing. to dismiss Masyn Winn is to miss the player who could be the face of the franchise going into the future.
ATXBluesFan: Who are the candidates for POBO?
DG: The job isn't open at the moment.
Jojo Disco: When we hear about a lack of coaches and instructors throughout the organization, who bears fault for that? Is that a Mo oversight or was he not given the necessary financial resources?
DG: It's not a front office oversight. They know the head count on their staff, and they see the head count on other staffs. Heck, for about a decade now John Mozeliak has been trying to build a pitching lab because he knew the Cubs had one on the way and had information on how the Brewers, Dodgers, et. al., where doing that. And -- look this has been a whole drawn-out epic with the Marlins, Palm Beach, constructions companies, and on and on and on. So, it's clearly something they knew about it, and it's not always just a financial hurdle that they have to clear. They acknowledge the whole Jupiter project has been a frustration, complete with time delays. And the pandemic is only part of the reason. The pandemic is also part of the staffing explanation. That is a financial consideration. When fielding questions about spending, the focus is often on the payroll for the major-league roster. Not too many ask about the budget in the way baseball operations looks at it -- as a whole. That includes staffing throughout the organization. And there are positions that have not been filled. There has also been salaries going up, and also keep in mind that those salaries that have gone up in the minors include players (they unionized!) and coaches. It's not an oversight. It is a financial resource decision. And then there are other factors too.
JavierFan: Was watching Baseball Tonight on the MLB Channel and they were talking about teams that have adjusted to the new offensive trend to score by putting an emphasis on stealing bases. Have the Cardinals discussed how they could improve in this area in the 2025 season?
DG: They have -- but you're probably not going to like the answer. The biggest thing for the Cardinals when it comes to stealing bases more often is ... not to be trailing so much in games and to get on base more. They didn't steal year not because they didn't want to but because early in the year they trailed for runs and couldn't take the risk as often as they would like, and then at times throughout the year they didn't get their basestealers on base enough. It was for lack of wanting to steal. The Cardinals want to steal. They'd like to steal bases, lead the division, whatever in them. They'd like to do that. They just had this year's games and struggles put the brakes on them.
WWMo: How much of the Cardinals development issues stem from the inability to tailor development to different personalities and skills. They have had a couple average success stories like Brendan Donovan, Edman, Wynn, Burleson. But even with these players, success overall is only slightly above average. It makes me wonder if these players have had some development purely on their own despite org coaching OR perhaps their personalities and skill sets happen to fit the one focus/sole approach which the cardinals teach. Perhaps they are not forcing one common approach but just aren鈥檛 good at implementing the other approaches. Inflexible or ineffective in their attempt to tailor approach to each player. Thought?
DG: Thought: That is not what is happening. They change their approach based on the player. Small examples -- the changes Masyn Winn made a hitter in the minors are wildly different than the changes Alec Burleson made as a hitter in the minors and majors. McGreevy was stressed that he needs a cutter. Pallante was stressed that he needs a sinker. Both were given different ways to work on those pitches because they're not the same pitcher and they don't need the same thing. Since before the advent of the performance department and definitely since then, the Cardinals have individualized everything -- from in-season work to off-season nutrition for the individuals.
Jason Blair: What do you objectively think of Skip Schumaker as a manager? That is, how do you rate him among his peers, regardless of whether we have an opening for him?
DG: He is a superb manager, and he'll one of the best in the game -- once he has a roster to show it.
Ed AuBuchon: Will Goldschmidt get a qualifying offer?
DG: Great question. I don't have a definitive answer I can give you based on the reporting I've done on this. I wish I did, trust me. As of right now -- probably not. But I reserve the right to do more reporting and get better details on this, especially as the Cardinals' plans crystallize in house, too.
WWMo: Please don鈥檛 lump all fans i
DG: That's fair. Thanks for the reminder. You're right. Xwitter isn't representative of all fans anymore than the chat is, etc. I should be clear and use modifiers like "some" and "a few" etc.
WWMo: please don鈥檛 lump all fans or even the majority that want a new manager or update to front office to come from within the org or past players. Most want new blood and fresh perspective.
DG: I don't hear enough from these fans, but again -- you make a fair point.
Andy: I won鈥檛 ask you to name names, but would the Cardinals be more likely to pursue the hitter they need through trade or free agency?
DG: Why won't you ask me to name names?
That's kind of the job!
The market for the hitter they need is -- as you can probably guess -- not yet developed. At this point in the season several years ago, the Cardinals had no idea that they would be able to trade for Paul Goldschmidt in November. Same with Willson Contreras. At this point, they had Contreras down as the free-agent option, but he wasn't even their top free-agent option to replace Yadier Molina at catcher. So, things change as the market arrives, the market evolves, and teams show their cards. That said, the list of free-agent hitters who fit and the price they would fit at seems ... short. There are some hitters who will be available via trade that have not yet surfaced. A lot of eyes will be on Toronto and what the Blue Jays elect to do with Vlad Guerrero Jr., and how the 1B market will shift and move around that. I have a short list of potential trades that I'm asking around about and trying to confirm if the Cardinals will be/could be involved -- and that may lead to ones I've not yet uncovered. One that I'm asking about and trying to see how possible it is -- let's name names -- Brent Rooker. Nothing confirmed. But let's name names again as November arrives.
DCG: DG, In your most recent BPIB, Bobby Witt, Jr's name came up, and I immediately thought back to what a terrible start he got off to in his career. .558 OPS for his first month. For his first 180 ABs, he slashed .229/.273/.429. He hit ZERO homers that first month (74 ABs). But, of course, with no pressure to make the playoffs, the Royals kept trotting him out there, and he righted the ship and now is an elite player. Would the Cardinals have kept trotting him out there after that first month if they weren't winning games? I doubt it. Obviously, I'm getting to that idea that you've been talking about lately of how much is the expectation to win and need for young players to produce right away a cause of the player development problems? I think a lot. I think that's why the Cardinals really need to decide what their plan is for the next few years. If it's really to develop a sustainable model of producing home grown talent, then they need to tolerate the failures and the losses that come with that in order to reap the greater benefits down the road.
DG: Thank for listening and for recapping it this way. I think it's a huge part of the current Cardinals -- and I don't think there's an easy solution. It just may not be possible for them to maintain their brand, live up to the expectations of the fans, media, and their history, and also adopt the patience that we see other teams benefit from. And that's OK. All it means is that model won't work either.
Innovate to create one that will.
Ed AuBuchon: Has a decision been made to try to fix Walker and Gorman or test their trade value?
DG: They can do both.
TomBruno23: What is the best Beatles album?
DG: The answer is probably Revolver, but I want it to be Sgt. Pepper. Day in the Life has so many grand lines ... Having read the book ... Dragged a comb through my hair ... Can they all just tied for first?
ICCFIM: 2,870,000 is a strong attendance showing by the BFIB. Will BDW acknowledge the fans continuing support? His recent comments suggested otherwise. How will management handle both Arenado and Contreras call for outside help this offseason?
DG: I imagine he will note the fan support, yes. It's there for everyone to see -- the 2.8 million tickets purchased, the 400,000 not purchased. Both send messages that aren't contradictory.
I imagine they'll handle those comments like they have in previous years when players have also made similar comments. Like last year. Last year Mozeliak acknowledged that players (and the manager) weren't wrong when they said they needed pitching help from outside the organization. And we know now that the players also privately asked for more veteran presences in the clubhouse -- and front office responded to that request, too.
Molly: Which current Cardinal players do you think are most likely to get into coaching when their playing days are over.
DG: Matt Carpenter. Nolan Arenado. Kyle Gibson. Andre Pallante. Wouldn't be a surprised if Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan did at some point. This is not a complete list, but it's a good start.
Alan: I've commented before in this chat about the Cardinals' explanation regarding stealing bases while behind, and it still makes zero sense to me. If it's a positive way to score runs while ahead, the same is true when behind. And when behind, they should be looking for more ways to score. Swinging the bat is also risky - it could lead to strikeouts! Best to just take your walks, if I follow the Cardinals logic.
DG: The risk of stealing bases is not static. It's not always the same. Can we agree that there are two sides to this coin that must be compared -- there is the BENEFIT of the steal and the RISK of the steal, just to break it down.
For example, if Masyn is batting 7th or 8th, the benefit of stealing second is different than if he's batting leadoff. Why is that? Well, if he walks, and steals second with the No. 8 or 9 hitter up, then he's in scoring position for a single. Or if he steals third, then he's in scoring position for a wild pitch or a passed ball and a hitter the team has hit 8th or 9th doesn't have to swing the bat all because the benefit of the steal is there, and outweighs the risk. With Winn at leadoff, the benefit isn't as great when he's followed by -- ostensibly -- three hitters who can drive him home with a double. So, the benefit shifts and the risk isn't as worth the steal. Circumstance influences both.
And that brings us to the score. If the Cardinals are trailing by 3 and a speedster gets on base with no outs, the benefit of him being at second is not as great with a 3-run deficit as the risk of being bases empty and one out. His run doesn't matter as much as the potential for a rally, so don't risk the out at all when 3 runs are needed. Whereas with a 1-run lead, the benefit is clear and the risk has some cushion with that lead. Again, it's not static. It's a sliding scale. And if we really want to get into the weeds ...
This is one of the things that players and managers talk about when discussing "playing to the scoreboard." It actually came up in Marmol's office this past week when I was asking about putting an emphasis on winning in the minors a few years after a lot of losing in the minors. One of the benefits of the postseason play for Palm Beach and Springfield was just what we're talking about here -- how the game shifts, strategies adapt, based on the scoreboard.
Thanks for bringing up this topic. It's nice to dig in deep for some ball talk.
Mark: Would you trade Walker for Logan Gilbert from Seattle
DG: That would be a tough deal not to make. Logan Gilbert sure looks like an ace. But I doubt Seattle does that deal.
Not straight-up.
TomBruno23: Will Goldschmidt get a qualifying offer? 1 win season going into his Age 37 season seems like the biggest Slam Dunk No on a QO offer in the history of the franchise (slight hyperbole, but not by much).
DG: It does. But not entirely for that reason. It does because if they're going to come to an agreement on his return, it won't look like the one-year offer of a QO, and if they make that offer, they have to be ready for him to accept it.
Thomas: Is David Bell's firing a foreshadowing of what could happen with Oli this offseason? The two both received extensions recently, and underperformance has been equal for both leaders.
DG: Contract extensions guarantee dollars. They don't guarantee years. Full stop.
Dane Iorg: Derek, with the TV contract uncertainty seemingly ever present, do you envision a similar offseason to last year in terms of spending?
DG: Do not know yet. The TV issue is real, and it has turned the faucet down on spending for other teams. Look at Texas. The Cardinals got their full pay for 2024. They do not yet know what 2025 looks like, and they are not the RSN that is more urgently being dealt with because they don't have the issues of other markets. Yet. So there is uncertainty there.
There is also another stress point on the Cardinals.
Are you ready?
They are in precarious position of needing to invest in the team to excite a fanbase to generate ticket sales at a time when ticket sales have softened and they don't have the same revenue as they once counted on from ticket sales. How they position this message to fans and -- more importantly -- how they choose to act -- do they spend now on the bet that they can get a team that brings the fans back and covers that spending? -- will be one of the most compelling things of this winter.
Chris: Would you trade Helsley for a top of the rotation pitcher?
DG: Not straight up, no. If the Cardinals trade Helsley they're going to get a larger return of younger players with the upside to be that type of pitcher and then also other players involved. Trading Helsley would be akin to the Yankees trading Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman back in 2016. Look at that as the model and see how it set up the selling Yankees for a rebuild that should be discussed more as a model for the Cardinals.
CrampyCrampaneris: If positive investments in pitching and SLG are made and the Birds are winning, I see no historical evidence to suggest a playoff/contending Cards team won't draw 3+M anew. Another off-season of men and a 2025 .500-level performance I fear may break the legendary Cardinal fans spirit for awhile. It's already very low to end this year.
DG: Do not underestimate the importance of success in April when it comes to selling tickets.
I bet ... April wins > Hot stove additions when it comes to moving tickets.
Ed AuBuchon: Goldschmidt might not accept the qualifying offer as teams wouldn't want to give up a draft choice to sign him.
DG: Once he gets the QO from the Cardinals the draft pick is there whether he accepts or not. It is one reason why he likely would accept.
TomBruno23: Either you choose to rebuild, or it will be chosen for you. See: The Early 2010s Philadelphia Phillies.
DG: Hasn't happened for the Cardinals. They've kicked that can down the road for years. The whole thrust of the essay I wrote for Baseball Prospectus back in ... 2018, was it? Has that arrived now? Can you say for sure?
Craig: Derrick, with the uncertainties surrounding the TV deal, could you see a scenario where the Cards just let the young kids play, perhaps trading Helsley, Arenado and other veterans and promise to spend once that issue is resolved? In that way they get another year to see what they have internally and be poised to spend a year from now?
DG: You could. That would be a shift for this ownership group and front office that has said repeatedly that it does not think the fans or the organization can "stomach" a rebuild. Would the fans support the product your describing? I am skeptical. But you all are capable of proving me wrong for feeling that way.
And, no, I did not forget the Arraez and Schwarber topic. Just kept waiting for someone to bring it up.
TomBruno23: I think the fans would be fine right now seeing someone, anyone, in charge clearly saying here is where we are going with things. General Apathy is no place to be.
DG: Apathy is the worst place for a fan base to be.
Joe B: There's been a few comments this week about how hard it is to hit at Busch -- Lance Lynn reveling in giving up a rocket that died in the outfield and Nolan Arenado lamenting that you really, really have to hit the ball hard to the right spot to hit it out. I know a few years back they studied moving the fences in and opted against in in order to be a Pitching and Defense team, but has there been any desire to revisit that idea? It seems like it might be the cheapest way to improve the offense.
DG: There are advocates within the Cardinals for them to look again at moving in the walls, yes. The last time the Cardinals looked into this, they won five Gold Gloves and had that defense returning. There is also going to be some interest in looking for reasons the play at the ballpark has changed and how the rising buildings of Ballpark Village take a part. They've looked at that before, but merging those two studies could lead the Cardinals to their best option.
And when I say changed -- I mean become more pitcher friendly. It was always a pitcher friendly ballpark. Always. But it's become more so.
Another thing for the Cardinals to look at is how teams with strong offenses got that way while playing 81 games at Busch. Eleven years ago the top offense in the NL called Busch home. What made it perform so well, and could that be replicated?
Jason: Kind of off the subject, but I wonder why Harry Caray is never on the ballot for the Cardinal Hall of Fame.
DG: He's been discussed, but the ballots that go out to fans are for modern-era players, so he does not qualify, as you can imagine. The radio broadcasters, like coaches, are eligible for the ownership selection that went to Mike Shannon several years ago, Jose Oquendo recently, and Dave Duncan this year. Unless they change the process, he's not going to appear on the ballot. That does not mean he won't someday appear in the Hall.
Joliet Dave: Talking with a gate usher yesterday, he said they used to be able to see the actual through the turnstiles attendance, but the higher ups put a stop to that. Do you have access to those numbers?
DG: Not for every game. They don't release that information to the media. You have to report to get it from a reliable source, like most everything around the ballpark.
Jack: Which two teams would you be most excited about watching in the WS this year? And who do you think is best positioned to win?
DG: The Padres are better positioned than most will give them credit. When talking about the best teams for October from the NL, Philly and San Diego stand out. What SD did for the bullpen should make the Padres really difficult to deal with in a short series. And they have the starters, too. Lots to like about Shildt's club. Most entertaining World Series? I am usually a fan of historic clashes, right, baseball royalty, Dodgers vs. Yankees, that kind of thing ... but a Padres vs. Yankees, Slam Diego vs. Pinstripes, the clash of the Soto trade. That would be compelling. I'd also wouldn't mind watching Jackson Holliday in the WS. Put me in the any team other than Houston camp for the AL pennant as far as entertaining goes.
TomBruno23: I would be happy for Wacha, DeJong and Pham if things break right over there in the (more) fun part of the state.
DG: KC would also be solid, and definitely qualifies as not-Houston.
Larry M: If the minor league support staff is short on instructors and organizational support, what is the amount of personnel and what is the total expense. It seems to me that Goldy and Arenado at 40+ Mil cover more budget than the entire minor league operation. How far am I in error.
DG: I don't have the exact dollars, but your theory is correct, for sure. How would that play on Clark Street? The Cardinals shed payroll to directly invest it all in coaching and infrastructure for the minors, not the product that they're trying to sell to the minors. When it comes to generating ticket sales, it's going to be the additions at the big-league level that do that. Yes, some of those come from an internal development system that needs to be upgraded. This is why the answer for the Cardinals is invest in both, not just one or the other ...
Andrew W: It appears that Ivan Herrera is out of minor league options, while Pedro Pages still has some remaining. Obviously that limits the Cardinals' flexibility with how to handle their three major league catchers. Any indication of what the Cardinals' plans are? Is the simplest answer the correct one (option Pages to Memphis until they need him)?
DG: The only indications at the moment are the lineups. Pedro Pages has played a lot, started a lot, and done well behind the plate. Ivan Herrera has hit well. In other words, they've been in the majors as they've been advertised coming out of the minors, with Pages' providing and improving offensively more than expected, and that's a credit to him and a benefit of the playing time. Those are the indications. Yes, Herrera is out of options. That's going to prompt trade conversations this winter from interested teams, and it won't be the first time teams express interest in him. It also could shape the Cardinals' roster building with three catchers, one of whom can be a reliable DH, a sometime 1B, and a sometime catcher, if Contreras is game for that.
Mike: Arraez / Schwarber. Traditionalists would say Arraez. Over .300 BA so he can be driven in. However, is OBP isn't much higher than his BA because he doesn't walk. I'd guess, without looking, that Schwarber's BA is around 70-80 points lower than Arraez but that his OBP is higher. He walks. A lot. While his power might be "wasted" on occasion by hitting a leadoff HR... that's still a run you didn't have where Arraez would just be standing on first.
DG: Alright, let's get into this ...
Arraez is on his way to another batting title, which is remarkable, but it also speaks to how little competition there is challenging him with an average better than .300. He's slashing a .318/.351/.391 line -- so lots of singles, a handful of walks, and not much damage for as often as he gets hit. His offensive production is 7% above average.
Kyle Schwarber is hitting only .249.
But his OBP is .367 (yes, higher than Arraez), and what he's doing with his hits is more damage at .484 slugging. That is why his overall production is 37% greater than league average. And this is where it gets interesting about who would you rather have at leadoff.
Leadoff is about getting on base, and if we simplify it down to that Arraez leads the league in hits and he's been on base 228 times.
Schwarber has been on base 244 times. That is 10th-most in the league.
(The top Cardinal? Brendan Donovan at 213.)
JB: The problem with the Cardinals isn't a lack of patience. It's a lack of patience with young players with options. They showed incredible patience with Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Mikolas this year because of their contracts and past performance. Why will they allow veterans unlimited opportunities to become the players they used to be but won't allow young players like Walker the opportunity to become the player they think he can be?
DG: One second. Had a phone call come up.
(After an exchange of punts we resume the chat already in progress.)
The ultimate tell in baseball how a team thinks a player will perform is the salary that team offers that player. It's not secret, and it's right there in the number of digits to the left of the decimal point. The larger the salary, the more a team expects from a player. Obviously there are nuances like players who have yet to reach free agency, but even then look at a contract like Milwaukee Jackson Chourio -- but even then the Brewers are telegraphing the talent and production they expect from him. Will it work out? There's no guarantee. All that is for sure is that the team isn't offering that kind of contract to a player it feels isn't going to be productive. Too much money at stake. It's a quick and easy way for fans and media to know what a team thinks of a player and what is expected from them -- and also the playing time they are going to get to make good on that return and how far the team will go to be proven right with its valuation.
TomBruno23: You know what I always loved about The Goonies? No sequal. No reboot. Nothing. Simply, The Goonies.
DG: But Goonies never say die.
Wally: Hi Derrick, what is the most glaring need for the Cardinals at the current time? Who will be available to help that need?
DG: It's hard to look past the lack of offense and not suggest that the glaring need is there in two forms: a thunderous addition and a homegrown star. Those two elements would add to the glaring need.
Dick: The lack of base on balls absolutely killed this offense, brewers have drawn 120 more walks, not enough emphasis on getting free passes
DG: Great stuff. That's actually one of the most revealing stats of them all -- but perhaps not for the reason many think. ... That tells you how willing opponents were to attack the Cardinals' lineup. We watched it happen. Why walk a team when it isn't slugging? Let the Cardinals try and single you to death, challenge them, and see what happens. It speaks about the pitches the Cardinals saw, not anything really about their lack of patience.
Uncle Redbird: Given the hints on budget limitations and the Triple A starting depth, does it make sense to bring back Gibson, have the #5 starter role as an open audition for McGreevy and friends, and put dollars into a bat?
DG: I've told a few of my colleagues this and may have mentioned it on a radio show, so it's only consistent to also say it here. If the Cardinals do not bring back Kyle Gibson and provide a clear explanation of that move, then consider it the canary in the coal mine that would suggest some trims. Like you said, "hints." I see a lot of guesses too. But not comments. Not details. If they opt not to exercise Gibson's option -- without clearly explaining the reason why -- that would be an early action, similar to when they did not exercise Kolten Wong's option.
Alright, I've got to hop to another commitment. Thanks for the great questions, the great topics, and the wide spectrum of topics discussed.
The season is almost over.
The chats never end.
See you here next week.
